NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market entered its fifth year on Monday after completing four years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has increased approximately 119% from its bear-market closing low of October 12, 2022. That session marked its lowest close since November 2020, with the index ending at 3,577.03. As of Friday, it closed at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% increase for 2026, and the index gained 1.2% over the most recent week.
This ongoing run marks the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record. It is also the seventh to last at least four years. The 119% growth lags behind the average gain of 184% documented across the study’s bull markets. The 2009-to-2020 cycle experienced a 401% increase, while the 1987-to-2000 rally reached 582%. These earlier periods remain among the most robust long-term gains in the comparison.
Generally, past fifth-year performances have stayed positive, though outcomes differ across individual cycles. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their fourth anniversary. For those reaching a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. Historical data also shows an average maximum drawdown of approximately 14% during fifth years. These figures describe previous market cycles and do not predict the current market’s future trajectory.
Corporate Earnings Bolster Market Progress
The strength of corporate profits continues to be a key driver of the current rally. FactSet reports that third-quarter S&P 500 earnings as of October 9 were 29.6% higher than a year earlier. This marks a third straight quarter of earnings growth exceeding 25%. At the end of September, the growth estimate was 29.2%. Of the 19 index companies that reported, 84% surpassed analysts’ average earnings forecasts, with their combined earnings exceeding estimates by 4.9%.
Analysts continue to anticipate strong profit growth through the end of 2026. Fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings are projected to increase by 27.6% compared to the same period last year, with full-year earnings expected to grow by 32.4%. About 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates come from semiconductor and hardware firms. Barclays research further found that these companies account for roughly 75% of the year-to-date revisions to 2027 estimates. Consequently, technology-related companies remain a significant part of current earnings adjustments.
Rising Rates Mark Fifth Year of Market Gains
The rally continues amid rising interest rates and high U.S. government bond yields. The Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16. Officials indicated that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained elevated. The September projections showed median 2026 economic growth at 2.3%, with unemployment at 4.1%. The Fed’s upcoming policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated as the stock market approaches the fifth year of gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.24% on October 9, while the 30-year yield was 5.60%. Despite this, the S&P 500 increased by 0.6% that day, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6%. U.S. equities are nearing five years of growth at near-record levels, supported by strong earnings and higher borrowing costs.